RBAC公司:日本将如何应对脱碳政策下的液化天然气市场?

2021-10-22 08:18:25 来源:上海石油天然气交易中心 作者:林宁 杨佳昕等

  SHPGX导读:近日,RBAC公司发布研究报告,设计出四个不同的场景并使用 G2M2 ®全球天然气预测分析系统进行模拟和分析,预测未来十五年亚洲主要国家和地区的LNG进口量、亚洲LNG价格等指标。从这些指标中,得出以下主要结论:1. 如果中国的消费量在一定范围内波动,从俄罗斯经蒙古至北京的西伯利亚二线的使用效率将不受影响。2. 西伯利亚二线是否开通将对其他亚洲买家,尤其是日本产生较大的影响。

  几十年来,日本一直是液化天然气市场最大、最具主导地位的买家,并控制着世界能源市场之一的亚洲市场。但是今年夏天带来了两个改变日本在天然气市场的影响力的重大事态变化。

  首先,从历史数据来看,2020年,日本进口了1070亿立方米的液化天然气,而2021年上半年,中国对液化天然气的需求增长超过了日本和韩国。可以预见的是,中国对液化天然气的需求将继续上升。

  其次,是日本自身制定的能源政策。7月下旬,METI (Ministry of Economy、Trade and Industry)公布了第六次基本能源计划。其2030年电力组合的愿景是,以牺牲化石燃料为代价,可再生能源攀升至总量的近40%。由于核能的比例保持在20%左右,天然气、煤炭和石油的配置将被压缩到41%。这将对日本未来的液化天然气合同产生重大影响,同时买方战略还需要仔细考虑中国的天然气采购和结构。

  因此,针对未来会出现的可能情况,RBAC公司设计出四个不同的场景并使用 G2M2 ®全球天然气预测分析系统进行模拟和分析,预测未来十五年亚洲主要国家和地区的LNG进口量、亚洲LNG价格等指标。从这些指标中,得出以下主要结论:

  1. 如果中国的消费量在一定范围内波动,从俄罗斯经蒙古至北京的西伯利亚二线的使用效率将不受影响。这表明,液化天然气将继续发挥中国边际供应商的作用,而管道天然气将成为中国的核心进口来源。

  2. 西伯利亚二线是否开通将对其他亚洲买家,尤其是日本产生较大的影响。如果不能开通,液化天然气买方市场的竞争将更加激烈,日本进口液化天然气将受到负面影响,同时会助推亚洲液化天然气的价格。

  RBAC公司将于下一季度出版针对这次预测的更深入分析,同时与Refinitiv(路孚特)合作发表2021-2023年全球短期LNG价格预测。

  Japan NRG是一个提供有关日本能源和电力市场的信息和分析的一站式平台,旨在将世界各地的读者与日本的能源和电力行业连接起来,促进两者之间的顺畅沟通和信息交流。出版物包括周刊报告、独家评论等,并从宏观和微观角度提供了行业关键的新闻和趋势。

  RBAC公司创立于1987年,主要负责开发和维护是全球和区域天然气和液化天然气市场预测系统,其利用数学建模、统计分析、数学算法开发和数据库设计方面等专业知识向能源行业公司以及涉及能源、交通和环境的政府机构提供强大的分析工具。

  林宁博士是德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校经济地质局首席经济学家,现带领RBAC公司团队开发G2M2 ®全球天然气预测分析系统。在加入 RBAC 公司之前,林博士曾任职于壳牌贸易公司、美国科氏工业集团和特纳斯卡能源公司等。

  杨佳昕是RBAC公司的市场研究分析师。

  小林良和是日本国立政策研究所的高级经济学家、天然气和液化天然气专家,并正在攻读博士学位。

  英文报告原文:

  The Decarbonization Wager;

  How Japan May Lose Control of its LNG Prowess

  For decades Japan has been the biggest, most dominant buyer in the LNG market, holding sway over one of the world’s top energy markets. This summer brought two significant developments that threaten to change Japan’s role and influence.

  While Japan imported a world-leading 107 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2020[1], China’s demand growth saw it surpass both Japan and South Korea over the first six months of 2021. China’s demand for LNG is expected to continue rising.

  The second factor was generated by Japan. In late July, METI released a draft of the 6th Basic Energy Plan. Its vision for the 2030 electricity mix has renewable energy climbing to almost 40% of total at the expense of fossil fuels. With nuclear’s ratio maintained at around 20%, the allocation for gas, coal and oil is squeezed to 41%.

  This will have significant impact on Japan’s future LNG contracts, and buyer strategy will also need to carefully consider China’s gas purchases and structure.

  The end of an era

  Currently, Japanese buyers rely heavily on long-term LNG contracts to source natural gas. However, 56% of these contracts will expire within the next decade.

  While buyers have the choice to extend or renegotiate their contracts, the strong government policy signals to reduce fossil fuels, plus more regional competition for LNG, is creating uncertainty for Japanese buyers when reconsidering long-term purchasing strategy.

  Our analysis shows there are two specific factors that will drive the strategy of Japanese LNG buyers: 1) the pace of decarbonization in both China and Japan, and its correlation with natural gas demand; and 2) the possible introduction of a second gas pipeline from Russia to China.

  The first is far from a straightforward assumption that installing more renewable energy power plants will eat into gas purchase volumes. Indeed, both Japan and China face much uncertainty over the extent of decarbonization over the next 15-20 years. Hence, we propose an alternative, “advanced technology scenario,” in which domestic natural gas demand is reduced in case of accelerated decarbonization in between 2021-2035.

  Figures 1 and 2 below show the demand assumptions for China and Japan based on our reference scenario, which assumes an annual growth rate for China at 4% and unchanged for Japan, and the advanced technology scenario. The latter assumes China transitions from fossil fuels at a quicker pace and that demand for natural gas averages +3% between 2021-2035. For Japan, the same advanced technology case sees annual demand shrink by 3%, driven largely by a reduction in gas use for electricity.

  The second factor mentioned earlier is the potential for China to add more pipeline capacity, which would potentially shrink its LNG demand and influence the purchasing of other Asian buyers. The main candidate is the “Power of Siberia 2” (PS2) pipeline proposed by Russia to run via Mongolia, carrying as much as 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year.

  Figure 3 below demonstrates the effect of a substantial reduction in gas demand in China and Japan on LNG imports into Asia in total. In aggregate, the advanced technology scenario results in a 103 billion cubic meter reduction in LNG demand for the entire East Asia region including China, China’s Taiwan region, South Korea and Japan, and a $2/ mmbtu reduction in Asian LNG price through 2035, shown in Figure 6 below.

  Pipeline impact on LNG imports

  In both our reference and advanced technology scenarios, by 2035 more than 45 bcm of gas would be delivered to China via PS2, at a near 100% utilization rate. This means if demand is within a certain range, the efficiency of this project won’t be impacted. That also indicates that LNG would play the role of marginal supplier to China and pipeline gas would be the core source of imports.

  The PS2 project holds attraction for China in several ways. It allows for flexibility of supply and a degree of control over price.

  In a world without PS2, China would require an additional 47 bcm of LNG imports, making the Asian LNG market more aligned with Chinese demand growth trajectories. In effect, this would lead to an increase in Asian LNG prices of $1.30/ mmbtu in our reference case and $0.70/ mmbtu in the advanced technology scenario.

  As you can see from the price modeling, it is to China’s advantage to negotiate with Russia for the construction of the PS2 pipeline. Whether they succeed or not will have a further impact on other Asian buyers, especially Japan.

  In the situation where China has no additional Russia pipeline import volumes, there is a negative impact on Japanese imports due to there being more competition for LNG cargoes. Although we see Japan’s natural gas demand decline in all possible scenarios, our reference case assumes a small decline of less than 1% between 2020 and 2035 and about 2% in the advanced technology case.

  About the authors
  Dr. Lin is an energy industry economist and leader of the global gas and LNG modeling team at RBAC, a supplier of global and regional gas and LNG market simulation systems. Before joining RBAC, Dr. Lin managed global market analysis capabilities for Shell Trading, KOCH Industries and Tenaska.

  Jiaxin Yang is a market research analyst with RBAC.

  Yoshikazu Kobayashi is a senior economist and a natural gas and LNG expert from the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, or GRIPS, which is a research graduate school funded by the Japanese government.